Saturday, January 12, 2013

IT MAY ONLY GET WORSE... giving Nigeria a heads up

Believe it or not, these may be Nigeria's Golden Years.

Now indeed this looks like the most stupid statement in the world considering how much suffering and hardship is in the land. yet I dare warn that this could be Nigeria's Golden Years. I say the above with dread in my heart while staring in my crystal ball... well my television set. The news coming out is scarier than Williwilli and Hammer House of horror... those TV series that scared the living daylight out of me as a child. Once again I feel the same chill crawl down my spine but instead of my fear for the phantasmagorical poltergeist, this time my fear is based on events which already have been put in place...events which Nigerians seem to be unaware of

. I read the claim that oil has been found in the North (http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/index.php/other-sections/opinion/175935-myths-and-realities-of-norths-oil-find) and I said "Amen" because I am aware of the billions wasted in the search for oil all resulting in "dry casting" which is a technical jargon for not finding oil after spending billions in its search.

Indeed as happy as I am by all oil finds, we must realize that way sooner than later, our oil will be of little use globally. It will interest you to note that America is Nigeria's biggest oil buyer and has been for aeons. I however wish to inform Nigerians that by 2025 (just fifteen years time) America will halve its consumption of crude oil. It may also be the highest exporter of oil overtaking Saudi Arabia.

Now as a seller, what happens when your major customer only needs half of your product? Or rather himselfbecomes a seller?  Now add the fact that Ghana and a few other countries are making their own discoveries. Thus, while more oil is produced and available in the market, the world's number one buyer only needs half? What happens to the price? Did i hear you say crash? It gets worse. Nigerian people and government seem not not realize that Canada has the third largest oil reserve, or that America has just a little less oil than Nigeria or that China, one of our big buyers also have oil reserves. And more importantly that Canada and America are now trying to fully exploit their oils and that China are trying to sign oil treaties with Canada. Now what this portends is that we lose two big customers as well as other customers who will start going to a "mall" and leaving our "supermarket".

Chevron advertizes daily saying all the billions it puts into the American economy just so the people would allow them fully exploit American oil. Add to that the fact that soon oil pipelines may run from Canada to the United states. Also add the fact that with Canada fully exploiting their oil, with its proximity to the South American countries like Brazil (One of our major customers) Argentina etc, it will make sense to buy from Canada than from Nigeria which will thus eliminate shipping costs across the Atlanti Ocean. As if the above is not enough, those living in America must be aware also that the new cars made in America have responded to Obama's challenge and are using half the amount of fuel it used to do. American cars which used to be known as fuel guzzlers now use less fuel than even Japanese cars and rightly GM motors is now the number one car manufacturer in the world.

Now also add that America has invested billions in solar, wind and majorly coal. All of this was part of the major investment made by this Obama administration so as to be totally independent of the troublesome Middle East and their oil. Then again be aware that there is now made the fastest electric car in the world with a zero-sixty miles acceleration in 2 seconds. The car is totally silent, extremely fast etc. The first unit has been ordered http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2012/09/06/wheels-electric-supercar-croatia-rimac.cnnmoney/ Now for those who understand technology, the prototype is very expensive but in a very short while the price will crash and made for the average market. Now if the electric car can conquer the "slowness" it is known for, and when a car is merely plugged just like a phone instead of buying expensive fuel , when the car does not emit carbon mono-oxide which destroys the environment, what is the hope for our crude?

I can go on and on from looking in the crystal ball. But I do not like horror movies. Instead I pick up my computer and send a plaintive cry and tell my people in Nigeria especially the politicians and leaders that we must make good use of our oil now to develop the land as fast as we can. We must use the oil money to invest and diversify our economy. This is the time to ask the Americans how their cows and turkeys are so huge and therefore cheap. How their summer which is as hot as Nigeria's is able to produce wheat and rice etc. We must also ask them to share their research on coal so Enugu can once again become buoyant.

Now is practically our last chance. The fear is no longer that the oil deposits will be exhausted but that sooner than later the oil will be of little or no use or at best very cheap and no longer the "Black Gold" it is now

If Nigeria with our oil that produces over 90 percent of our earning is still among the poorest nations in the world according to known statistics, how poor or rich will Nigeria be if that oil becomes obsolete like the typewriter, black and white TV, or if our oil is no longer needed like a trader who sells old newspapers to be used as guguru wrapper when everyone now uses nylons. Or if we are traders who sell what everyone already has in their compound.

Like I have mentioned, I hate Horror movies and the one my TV shows me of Nigeria's future and continued total reliance on oil is the scariest of them all.

GOD BLESS NIGERIA